In the 1980s, Japan was one of the heavyweights in the world equity index with a share of over 40%. Thanks to strong economic growth, Europe gained in importance in the noughties. Today, however, the situation is completely different and there is no way around the USA: with a weighting of over 70%, the United States is and remains absolutely dominant.
In autumn, the focus will continue to be on the Americas. On 18 September, the US Federal Reserve is expected to initiate its cycle of interest rate cuts, and on 5 November, the US presidential elections will take place, the outcome of which is once again completely open.
Switzerland ahead of the USA
Will the outperformance of the USA on the stock markets continue, fuelled by the sensational profits of the big IT companies? We are sceptical and are shifting more to other regions.
In terms of equities, we favour Switzerland, the UK and emerging markets. However, earnings growth in the eurozone remains too subdued, which is why we remain underweight there. Earnings revisions in Japan look much better, which is why we are now buying there. We are maintaining our neutral equity allocation for the time being. On the one hand, momentum is intact and monetary policy remains supportive. On the other hand, valuations are still very high and the economy is likely to weaken further.